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Shock result as Mantova defy the odds to beat Padova 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mantova beat Padova 1-0 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.19 xG and Padova 1.41 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Padova landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.93 / defence 1.56 against Padova attack 0.82 / defence 0.93, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 28% | Draw 33% | Padova 39%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Mantova win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 46%, Padova 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Padova's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Padova arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.73. Form was overturned, with Mantova winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mantova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line. Padova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights