Mantova 1-0 Padova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Padova at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mantova host Padova at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Serie B, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mantova — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Mantova are significantly better at Stadio Danilo Martelli than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Padova have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Padova have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Padova — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Mantova in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Padova in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 54% versus Padova 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 46% | Padova 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.19 xG and Padova 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.934 / defence 1.564 | Padova attack 0.822 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.093. Data: 49 Mantova games / 11 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 28% | Draw 33% | Padova 39%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Padova 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Padova as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Padova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 70% | Padova 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 28% | Draw 33% | Padova 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 56% | xG Mantova 1.19 / Padova 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.934 / def 1.564 | Padova attack 0.822 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Padova (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Padova xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Padova kick off?
Mantova vs Padova kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Padova?
Mantova 1 - 0 Padova.
Where is Mantova vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Padova part of?
Mantova vs Padova is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 28% chance of winning, Padova a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Padova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Mantova and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Padova?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mantova and Padova in?
Mantova (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Padova (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mantova's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Padova's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Padova's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Padova Win
28%
3.52
33%
3.02
39%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.60
1.41
Padova xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.60
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
7%
14.37
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.5 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Mantova and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Mantova and 1.41 for Padova, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 11 outings, Mantova have picked up 0.73 PPG on a 2W 2D 7L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Padova's form line: 3W 5D 3L from 11 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Padova are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mantova.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mantova have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
On the road, Padova have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Padova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.09 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Padova in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Padova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Padova in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Padova have gone 3W 5D 3L in their last 11 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Padova away?
Padova's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 0.80 PPG; Padova away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mantova and Padova runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Mantova
0
Draws
0
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Padova?
From 2 meetings on record, Mantova have won 2, Padova have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Padova last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Padova 1-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Padova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Padova see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Mantova at 100%, Padova at 40%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Mantova) and 20% (Padova).
On the defensive side: Padova in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Padova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Mantova's games and 40% of Padova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Mantova's recent games and 20% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Padova tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Padova in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mantova defy the odds to beat Padova 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Padova 1-0 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.19 xG and Padova 1.41 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Padova landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.93 / defence 1.56 against Padova attack 0.82 / defence 0.93, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 28% | Draw 33% | Padova 39%, with Padova to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Mantova win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 46%, Padova 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Padova's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Padova arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.73. Form was overturned, with Mantova winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mantova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.60 average — tighter than their form line. Padova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.