🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Mantova defy the odds to beat Monza 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mantova beat Monza 3-2 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.10 xG and Monza 1.38 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mantova beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.94 / defence 1.15 against Monza attack 1.10 / defence 0.85, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 28% | Draw 32% | Monza 41%, with Monza to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Mantova win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 51%, Monza 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Monza's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.18 PPG, Monza 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. Monza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.49 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights