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Mantova cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Juve Stabia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Mantova beat Juve Stabia 2-0 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.33 xG and Juve Stabia 1.19 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Juve Stabia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.02 / defence 1.26 against Juve Stabia attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 39% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 32%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 52%, Juve Stabia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Juve Stabia's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.08 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights