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Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat Mantova 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Empoli beat Mantova 0-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.76 xG and Empoli 1.17 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mantova fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.03 / defence 1.26 against Empoli attack 0.87 / defence 1.26, drawn from 54/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 50% | Draw 27% | Empoli 24%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Empoli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 52%, Empoli 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Empoli's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.07 PPG, Empoli 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights