Mantova vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Mantova at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mantova vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 17 as Mantova welcome Benevento to Stadio Danilo Martelli. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 7W 1D 2L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 1W 1D 2L from 4 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mantova carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Mantova register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Benevento in 75% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Mantova trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Benevento trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mantova 75% and Benevento 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 75% | Benevento 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.87 xG and Benevento 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.227 / defence 1.008 | Benevento attack 0.697 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.180. Data: 41 Mantova games / 4 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 62% | Draw 22% | Benevento 16%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Benevento 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Mantova (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Mantova 60% | Benevento 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 62% | Draw 22% | Benevento 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 48% | xG Mantova 1.87 / Benevento 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.227 / def 1.008 | Benevento attack 0.697 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Mantova (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Benevento xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Benevento kick off?
Mantova vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
Where is Mantova vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Benevento part of?
Mantova vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 62% chance of winning, Benevento a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Mantova and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mantova and Benevento in?
Mantova (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Benevento (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mantova's attack rating (1.23) and Benevento's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.87 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
62%
1.61
22%
4.56
16%
6.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.70
0.83
Benevento xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
6.24
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
2%
40.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Mantova and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Mantova and 0.83 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Benevento?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mantova come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 1D 1L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 1.00 PPG from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mantova carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Benevento — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mantova have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Benevento in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Benevento in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Benevento have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Mantova at 75%, Benevento at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Mantova and 50% for Benevento. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Mantova's games and 75% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Mantova's matches and 50% of Benevento's.
Do Mantova and Benevento tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Benevento in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.