Mantova vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 17 as Mantova welcome Benevento to Stadio Danilo Martelli. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Mantova) versus 1.50 (Benevento). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Mantova's 30% rate and Benevento's 0% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Data
Mantova trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Benevento trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 60% versus Benevento 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mantova 40% | Benevento 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.21 xG and Benevento 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.925 / defence 1.113 | Benevento attack 0.845 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 48 Mantova games / 10 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 35% | Draw 32% | Benevento 33%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Benevento 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Mantova 30% | Benevento 0% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 35% | Draw 32% | Benevento 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Mantova 1.21 / Benevento 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.925 / def 1.113 | Benevento attack 0.845 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Mantova (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Benevento xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Benevento kick off?
Mantova vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
Where is Mantova vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Benevento part of?
Mantova vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 35% chance of winning, Benevento a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mantova and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mantova and Benevento in?
Mantova (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Mantova's attack rating (0.93) and Benevento's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
35%
2.83
32%
3.14
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.37
1.16
Benevento xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
10%
10.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mantova and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Mantova and 1.16 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Mantova come into this having played 10 games, going 5W 3D 2L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.80 PPG, Benevento on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Mantova's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.80 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Benevento have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Mantova are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mantova have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Benevento in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 games (1.80 PPG), while Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.00 PPG; Benevento away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Mantova or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Benevento in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mantova see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Benevento tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Mantova 25% BTTS, Benevento 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Mantova and 25% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Benevento in 50%; Mantova have failed to score in 50% of games; Benevento in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Mantova's recent matches and 0% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Mantova's recent games and 25% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Benevento tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Benevento in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.