🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Avellino cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Mantova.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Avellino beat Mantova 0-2 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.74 xG and Avellino 0.88 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Mantova fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Avellino outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.04 / defence 1.06 against Avellino attack 0.76 / defence 1.22, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Mantova 56% | Draw 27% | Avellino 17%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Avellino win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 50%, Avellino 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Mantova's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Avellino's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Mantova 1.18 PPG, Avellino 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Avellino win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Avellino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights