Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Sudtirol 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Sudtirol 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.18 xG and Sudtirol 1.06 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Juve Stabia beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.82 / defence 1.22 against Sudtirol attack 0.79 / defence 1.18, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 36% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 30%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 53%, Sudtirol 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Sudtirol's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.87. That form edge translated into the three points. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights