Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
36%
2.81
35%
2.88
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.24
1.06
Sudtirol xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.06 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.