Juve Stabia 0-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juve Stabia host Sampdoria at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Juve Stabia — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Juve Stabia have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sampdoria's away record: 0W 6D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Juve Stabia 1.50 PPG, Sampdoria 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Juve Stabia have won 1, Sampdoria 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Juve Stabia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Juve Stabia in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 54% versus Sampdoria 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 49% | Sampdoria 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.49 xG and Sampdoria 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.973 / defence 0.962 | Sampdoria attack 0.958 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.160. Data: 37 Juve Stabia games / 75 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 46% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 26%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Sampdoria 3.85. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 50% | Sampdoria 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 46% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Juve Stabia 1.49 / Sampdoria 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.973 / def 0.962 | Sampdoria attack 0.958 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sampdoria xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Juve Stabia 0 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria part of?
Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 46% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Juve Stabia and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Sampdoria?
Record (1 meetings): Juve Stabia 1W | Draws 0 | Sampdoria 0W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Sampdoria in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
46%
2.18
28%
3.54
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.56
1.07
Sampdoria xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
6%
17.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.07 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 14W 12D 11L from 37 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 8W 16D 13L across 37 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-L-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.46 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 10W 3D 5L from 18 games — 1.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 2W 9D 7L across 18 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.03 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Current Season
Sampdoria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 14W 12D 11L in their last 37 games (1.46 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 8W 16D 13L in their last 37 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Sampdoria away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.83 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
1
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Sampdoria?
From 5 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Sampdoria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Sampdoria 1-2 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Sampdoria?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 50%, Sampdoria 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Juve Stabia) and 61% (Sampdoria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Juve Stabia's games and 78% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juve Stabia vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Juve Stabia's matches and 61% of Sampdoria's.
Do Juve Stabia and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Juve Stabia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia and Sampdoria finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.49 xG and Sampdoria 1.07 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Juve Stabia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sampdoria landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.97 / defence 0.96 against Sampdoria attack 0.96 / defence 1.17, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 46% | Draw 28% | Sampdoria 26%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 49%, Sampdoria 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sampdoria's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.46 PPG, Sampdoria 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.