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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Juve Stabia and Pescara share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 19, as Juve Stabia and Pescara drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.90 xG and Pescara 0.69 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pescara outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.93 / defence 0.70 against Pescara attack 0.96 / defence 1.54, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 65% | Draw 23% | Pescara 12%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 44%, Pescara 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Pescara's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pescara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights