Juve Stabia 2-2 Pescara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juve Stabia at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juve Stabia vs Pescara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Pescara make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 January 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form
Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia at Stadio Romeo Menti this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at Stadio Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.
Pescara's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pescara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pescara's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Juve Stabia's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Pescara's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Pescara goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 39% versus Pescara 78%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 44% | Pescara 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.90 xG and Pescara 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.933 / defence 0.701 | Pescara attack 0.962 / defence 1.539. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.023. Pescara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.539 — this is suppressing Juve Stabia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Juve Stabia's defence rating of 0.701 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Juve Stabia games / 18 Pescara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 65% | Draw 23% | Pescara 12%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | Pescara 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Juve Stabia (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 30% | Pescara 88%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Pescara | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jan 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 65% | Draw 23% | Pescara 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 43% | xG Juve Stabia 1.90 / Pescara 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.933 / def 0.701 | Pescara attack 0.962 / def 1.539 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Pescara xG
43%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Pescara kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Pescara kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 10 January 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Pescara?
Juve Stabia 2 - 2 Pescara.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Pescara being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Pescara part of?
Juve Stabia vs Pescara is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Pescara?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 65% chance of winning, Pescara a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Pescara?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Juve Stabia and Pescara will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Pescara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Pescara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juve Stabia and Pescara in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Pescara (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 0.93x the league average against Pescara's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pescara's attack (0.96x) against Juve Stabia's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
65%
1.53
23%
4.39
12%
8.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.59
0.69
Pescara xG
1.53
65%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
8.36
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
50%
1.99
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
33%
3.06
2%
55.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 9.8 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Pescara?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Pescara expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.69 for Pescara, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Pescara?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Juve Stabia have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 6W 8D 4L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pescara's form line: 2W 7D 9L from 18 games, 0.72 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Pescara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Juve Stabia are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pescara.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Juve Stabia have posted 2.25 PPG from 8 outings (5W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — Juve Stabia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pescara have gone 0W 3D 5L from 8 away games — 0.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Pescara are on 1.28 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara in 78%.
Defensively: Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Pescara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Pescara in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 6W 8D 4L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while Pescara have gone 2W 7D 9L in their last 18 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Pescara away?
Juve Stabia's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 2.25 PPG; Pescara away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Pescara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Pescara in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
0
Pescara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Pescara?
From 2 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 0, Pescara have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Pescara last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Pescara 1-1 Juve Stabia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 25%, Pescara 88% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Juve Stabia) and 75% (Pescara).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Pescara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Pescara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Juve Stabia's games and 88% of Pescara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juve Stabia vs Pescara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 75% of Pescara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Pescara tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pescara in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juve Stabia and Pescara share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 19, as Juve Stabia and Pescara drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.90 xG and Pescara 0.69 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Pescara outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.93 / defence 0.70 against Pescara attack 0.96 / defence 1.54, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 65% | Draw 23% | Pescara 12%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 44%, Pescara 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Pescara's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pescara (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.