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Poisson rates Juve Stabia at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juve Stabia vs Pescara encounter.

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Analysis

Pescara make the trip to Stadio Romeo Menti to face Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 January 2026 at 16:15 UTC.

Form

Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Juve Stabia at Stadio Romeo Menti this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Romeo Menti. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at Stadio Romeo Menti than their overall form suggests.

Pescara's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pescara, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Pescara's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Juve Stabia's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Pescara's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

Trading Data

Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Pescara goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 39% versus Pescara 78%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 44% | Pescara 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.90 xG and Pescara 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.933 / defence 0.701 | Pescara attack 0.962 / defence 1.539. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.023. Pescara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.539 — this is suppressing Juve Stabia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Juve Stabia's defence rating of 0.701 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Juve Stabia games / 18 Pescara games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 65% | Draw 23% | Pescara 12%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | Pescara 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Juve Stabia (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 30% | Pescara 88%.

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