Juve Stabia vs Padova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 39%, yet in-form Padova provide a compelling counter-argument — this Juve Stabia vs Padova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Padova travel to Stadio Romeo Menti to take on Juve Stabia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 December 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juve Stabia have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Padova have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Padova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Padova's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Padova are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Juve Stabia, 0 for Padova and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (42 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Padova trading profile (42 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 57% versus Padova 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 48% | Padova 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.31 xG and Padova 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.844 / defence 1.170 | Padova attack 0.882 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.180. Data: 42 Juve Stabia games / 42 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 39% | Draw 27% | Padova 35%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Padova 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Padova (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 70% | Padova 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 39% | Draw 27% | Padova 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Juve Stabia 1.31 / Padova 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.844 / def 1.170 | Padova attack 0.882 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Padova xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Padova kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Padova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Padova part of?
Juve Stabia vs Padova is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 39% chance of winning, Padova a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Juve Stabia and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Padova?
Record (2 meetings): Juve Stabia 0W | Draws 2 | Padova 0W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Padova in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Padova (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 0.84x the league average against Padova's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Padova's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
39%
2.59
27%
3.73
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.52
1.22
Padova xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.22 for Padova, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 13W 17D 12L from 42 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Padova, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 17L across 42 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Padova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.33 PPG, Padova on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 8W 8D 3L from 19 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Padova's away record stands at 7W 2D 10L across 19 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.02 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Early Season
Padova
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Padova in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 13W 17D 12L in their last 42 games (1.33 PPG), while Padova have gone 14W 11D 17L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Padova away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.68 PPG; Padova away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
0
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Padova?
From 2 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 0, Padova have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Padova last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Juve Stabia 3-3 Padova.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 53%, Padova 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Juve Stabia) and 42% (Padova).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Padova in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Padova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 42% of Padova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 42% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Padova tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Padova in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.