Juve Stabia vs Padova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Juve Stabia take on Padova.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Padova travel to Stadio Romeo Menti to take on Juve Stabia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 December 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juve Stabia have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Padova have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Padova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Padova's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Juve Stabia 1.30 PPG, Padova 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Juve Stabia, 0 for Padova and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (48 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Padova trading profile (48 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 56% versus Padova 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 46% | Padova 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.05 xG and Padova 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.870 / defence 0.969 | Padova attack 0.869 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 48 Juve Stabia games / 48 Padova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 33% | Draw 34% | Padova 33%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Padova 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 50% | Padova 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Padova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 33% | Draw 34% | Padova 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Juve Stabia 1.05 / Padova 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.870 / def 0.969 | Padova attack 0.869 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Padova xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Padova kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Padova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Padova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Padova part of?
Juve Stabia vs Padova is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Padova?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 33% chance of winning, Padova a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Padova?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Juve Stabia and Padova will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Padova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Padova?
Record (2 meetings): Juve Stabia 0W | Draws 2 | Padova 0W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Padova in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Padova (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 0.87x the league average against Padova's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Padova's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.01
34%
2.93
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.08
1.04
Padova xG
3.01
33%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Padova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Padova expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.04 for Padova, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Padova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 15W 20D 13L from 48 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Padova, meanwhile, have gone 16W 12D 20L across 48 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Padova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.35 PPG, Padova on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 9W 9D 4L from 22 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Padova's away record stands at 8W 3D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Padova are on 1.02 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Padova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Padova in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 15W 20D 13L in their last 48 games (1.35 PPG), while Padova have gone 16W 12D 20L in their last 48 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Padova away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.64 PPG; Padova away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Juve Stabia
2
Draws
0
Padova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Padova?
From 2 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 0, Padova have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Padova last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Juve Stabia 3-3 Padova.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 50%, Padova 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Juve Stabia) and 41% (Padova).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Padova in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Padova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Padova?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 46% of Padova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Padova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 41% of Padova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Padova tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Padova in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.