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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Juve Stabia and Padova share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia and Padova finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.27 xG and Padova 0.58 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Juve Stabia beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Padova outscored their 0.58 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.93 / defence 0.79 against Padova attack 0.72 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 53% | Draw 31% | Padova 16%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 41%, Padova 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Padova's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Padova (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights