🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Juve Stabia and Monza share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia and Monza finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Semi-finals, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.26 xG and Monza 1.13 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Monza outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Monza attack 1.13 / defence 0.96, drawn from 76/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 38% | Draw 31% | Monza 32%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 46%, Monza 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Monza's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.41 PPG, Monza 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights