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Prediction vindicated as Modena edge out Juve Stabia 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Modena beat Juve Stabia 1-2 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 0.93 xG and Modena 1.02 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Modena outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against Modena attack 0.95 / defence 0.70, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 32% | Draw 32% | Modena 36%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 49%, Modena 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Modena's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.46 PPG, Modena 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights