Juve Stabia 2-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Juve Stabia face Modena.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti plays host to Juve Stabia versus Modena in Serie B (matchday 30). Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Juve Stabia's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Juve Stabia are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Modena have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Modena have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Juve Stabia, 1.10 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Modena edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Juve Stabia 0–3 Modena — a Modena win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 93% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Modena goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 55% versus Modena 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 52% | Modena 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.32 xG and Modena 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.054 / defence 1.017 | Modena attack 0.883 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.213 / away 1.101. Data: built from Juve Stabia's last 29 games and Modena's last 67.
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 42% | Draw 31% | Modena 26%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.37 | Draw 3.18 | Modena 3.81. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juve Stabia are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Juve Stabia's last 10 home games and Modena's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Juve Stabia 50% (last 10 home games) | Modena 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, matchday 30 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 15 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 42% | Draw 31% | Modena 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Juve Stabia 1.32 / Modena 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.054 / def 1.017 | Modena attack 0.883 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.213 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Modena xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Juve Stabia vs Modena FAQs
What time does Juve Stabia vs Modena kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 15 March 2025 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Juve Stabia 2 - 1 Modena.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Modena part of?
Juve Stabia vs Modena is a Serie B fixture (matchday 30) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 42% chance of winning, Modena a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Juve Stabia and Modena will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Juve Stabia vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Juve Stabia's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.88x) against Juve Stabia's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Juve Stabia's last 29 games and Modena's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
42%
2.37
31%
3.18
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.31
0.99
Modena xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.0 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Juve Stabia vs Modena Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 0.99 for Modena, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 10W 10D 9L from 29 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 7W 14D 8L across 29 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Juve Stabia against 1.21 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 7W 3D 4L from their last 14 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 2W 7D 5L across their last 14 away games, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.21 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
Juve Stabia (Home) vs Modena (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Juve Stabia
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Juve Stabia vs Modena Form FAQs
What form are Juve Stabia and Modena in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 10W 10D 9L in their last 29 games (1.38 PPG), while Modena have gone 7W 14D 8L in their last 29 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Modena away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.71 PPG; Modena away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 12 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Modena won Modena 3-0 Juve Stabia on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
0
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Juve Stabia vs Modena H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Modena?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Juve Stabia have won 2, Modena have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Modena last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 May 2026: Modena 0-1 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 50%, Modena 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Juve Stabia) and 29% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Modena in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Juve Stabia vs Modena Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Juve Stabia and Modena matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 43% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Juve Stabia and Modena matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 29% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Modena matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 93% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 79% of Modena's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Modena 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Modena 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.32 xG and Modena 0.99 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.05 / defence 1.02 against Modena attack 0.88 / defence 1.03, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 42% | Draw 31% | Modena 26%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 52%, Modena 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.38 PPG, Modena 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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