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Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Cesena 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Cesena 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.32 xG and Cesena 1.20 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cesena landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.90 / defence 1.24 against Cesena attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 37% | Draw 31% | Cesena 32%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 59%, Cesena 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Cesena's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.47 PPG, Cesena 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Cesena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights