🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Cesena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti plays host to Juve Stabia versus Cesena in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Sunday 22 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Juve Stabia have gone 3W 2D 3L this season (8 games, 1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Cesena have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cesena away from home this season: 1W 2D 5L from 8 away games — 0.62 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.62 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Juve Stabia, 1.40 for Cesena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Trading

Juve Stabia half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Cesena half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 53% versus Cesena 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 59% | Cesena 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.32 xG and Cesena 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.903 / defence 1.241 | Cesena attack 0.905 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.070. Data: 17 Juve Stabia games / 17 Cesena games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 37% | Draw 31% | Cesena 32%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Cesena 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Juve Stabia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 50% | Cesena 62% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights