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Juve Stabia and Carrarese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia and Carrarese finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.65 xG and Carrarese 1.02 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against Carrarese attack 0.88 / defence 1.26, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 51% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 23%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 48%, Carrarese 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Carrarese's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.40 PPG, Carrarese 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights