Juve Stabia vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Benevento fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Juve Stabia welcome Benevento to Stadio Romeo Menti. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Juve Stabia have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Romeo Menti this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Benevento — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 2L across 4 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Juve Stabia) versus 1.50 (Benevento). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Benevento trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 50% versus Benevento 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juve Stabia 40% | Benevento 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.14 xG and Benevento 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.869 / defence 0.968 | Benevento attack 0.845 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 48 Juve Stabia games / 10 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 36% | Draw 34% | Benevento 30%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Benevento 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Juve Stabia as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 50% | Benevento 0% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 36% | Draw 34% | Benevento 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Juve Stabia 1.14 / Benevento 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.869 / def 0.968 | Benevento attack 0.845 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Benevento xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Benevento kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Benevento part of?
Juve Stabia vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 36% chance of winning, Benevento a 30% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Juve Stabia and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juve Stabia and Benevento in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 0.87x the league average against Benevento's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
36%
2.74
34%
2.98
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.14
1.01
Benevento xG
2.74
36%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
10%
10.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.01 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia come into this having played 10 games, going 3W 4D 3L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Benevento sit at 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.30 PPG, Benevento on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Juve Stabia's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Benevento have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.40 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Benevento in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while Benevento have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.00 PPG; Benevento away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Benevento in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Benevento tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Juve Stabia 25% BTTS, Benevento 0%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Juve Stabia) and 25% (Benevento).
On the defensive side: Benevento in 50%; Juve Stabia have failed to score in 50% of games; Benevento in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 0% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 25% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Benevento tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Benevento in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.