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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Juve Stabia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juve Stabia beat Bari 3-1 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 0.90 xG and Bari 0.95 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Juve Stabia beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against Bari attack 0.79 / defence 0.82, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 31% | Draw 35% | Bari 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Juve Stabia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 50%, Bari 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Juve Stabia's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Bari's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.38 PPG, Bari 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Bari (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights