Juve Stabia vs Arezzo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Arezzo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Arezzo travel to Stadio Romeo Menti to take on Juve Stabia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juve Stabia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juve Stabia have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Romeo Menti — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Arezzo — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Arezzo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arezzo's away record: 3W 0D 2L from 5 road trips in Serie B this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Juve Stabia at 1.30 PPG versus Arezzo's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Juve Stabia trading profile (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Arezzo trading profile (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 50% versus Arezzo 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 40% | Arezzo 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.39 xG and Arezzo 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.868 / defence 0.968 | Arezzo attack 0.918 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.232. Arezzo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing Juve Stabia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Juve Stabia games / 10 Arezzo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 42% | Draw 31% | Arezzo 28%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Arezzo 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juve Stabia at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 50% | Arezzo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Arezzo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 42% | Draw 31% | Arezzo 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Juve Stabia 1.39 / Arezzo 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.868 / def 0.968 | Arezzo attack 0.918 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Arezzo xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Arezzo kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Arezzo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Arezzo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Arezzo part of?
Juve Stabia vs Arezzo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Arezzo?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 42% chance of winning, Arezzo a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Arezzo?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Juve Stabia and Arezzo will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Arezzo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Arezzo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juve Stabia and Arezzo in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Arezzo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 0.87x the league average against Arezzo's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Arezzo's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.27
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.49
1.10
Arezzo xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.17
7%
14.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Arezzo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Arezzo expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.10 for Arezzo, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Arezzo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 3W 4D 3L from 10 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arezzo, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 5L across 10 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Arezzo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.30 PPG, Arezzo on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arezzo's away record stands at 2W 0D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arezzo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Arezzo are on 0.90 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 10 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Arezzo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Arezzo in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while Arezzo have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Arezzo away?
Arezzo's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.00 PPG; Arezzo away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Arezzo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Arezzo in 30%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Arezzo tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 25%, Arezzo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Juve Stabia and 75% for Arezzo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Arezzo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Arezzo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 50% of Arezzo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Arezzo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Juve Stabia's matches and 75% of Arezzo's.
Do Juve Stabia and Arezzo tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Arezzo in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.