Hellas Verona 3-0 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 10 as Hellas Verona welcome Carrarese to Marc'Antonio Bentegodi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Hellas Verona have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Hellas Verona) versus 1.00 (Carrarese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Hellas Verona trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Carrarese trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 53% versus Carrarese 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 53% | Carrarese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.42 xG and Carrarese 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.171 / defence 1.036 | Carrarese attack 0.907 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.279. Data: 9 Hellas Verona games / 47 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 40% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 30%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Carrarese 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Hellas Verona 40% | Carrarese 50%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 40% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Hellas Verona 1.42 / Carrarese 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.171 / def 1.036 | Carrarese attack 0.907 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Hellas Verona (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Carrarese xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Carrarese kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Carrarese kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Carrarese?
Hellas Verona 3 - 0 Carrarese.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Carrarese part of?
Hellas Verona vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 40% chance of winning, Carrarese a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hellas Verona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Hellas Verona and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Carrarese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hellas Verona and Carrarese in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hellas Verona's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hellas Verona Win
40%
2.48
29%
3.40
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.62
1.20
Carrarese xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
7%
13.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.20 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 0.70 PPG on a 6W 15D 26L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese's form line: 13W 15D 19L from 47 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Carrarese are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 0.65 PPG from 23 outings (3W 6D 14L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 4W 7D 12L from 23 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.19 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 6W 15D 26L in their last 47 games (0.70 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 13W 15D 19L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Carrarese away?
Carrarese's away record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 0.65 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hellas Verona and Carrarese runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Hellas Verona
0
Draws
0
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Carrarese?
From 1 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 1, Carrarese have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Hellas Verona 3-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Carrarese?
Hellas Verona have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hellas Verona see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 52%, Carrarese 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Hellas Verona) and 52% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 44% of games; Carrarese in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Hellas Verona's games and 61% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 52% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Carrarese tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hellas Verona run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Carrarese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Carrarese 3-0 at Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.42 xG and Carrarese 1.20 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Carrarese landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.17 / defence 1.04 against Carrarese attack 0.91 / defence 0.94, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 40% | Draw 29% | Carrarese 30%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 53%, Carrarese 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Carrarese's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Carrarese arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.70. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.