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Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Virtus Entella.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Virtus Entella 4-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.86 xG and Virtus Entella 0.73 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against Virtus Entella attack 0.64 / defence 1.28, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 61% | Draw 28% | Virtus Entella 11%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 44%, Virtus Entella 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Virtus Entella's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights