🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Frosinone at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Virtus Entella encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 10 as Frosinone welcome Virtus Entella to Stadio Benito Stirpe. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 October 2025 at 19:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Frosinone have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Frosinone at Stadio Benito Stirpe this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Virtus Entella — All Games: 2W 4D 3L from 9 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.11 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Virtus Entella, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Serie B this season, Virtus Entella have posted 0W 1D 3L from 4 away outings — 0.25 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 1.11 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Frosinone are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.69 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.11). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Trading Patterns

Frosinone in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Virtus Entella in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 44% versus Virtus Entella 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Frosinone 44% | Virtus Entella 33%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.86 xG and Virtus Entella 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.096 / defence 0.999 | Virtus Entella attack 0.644 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.130. Virtus Entella bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Frosinone's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Frosinone games / 9 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Frosinone 61% | Draw 28% | Virtus Entella 11%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.64 | Draw 3.57 | Virtus Entella 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (61%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Frosinone 80% | Virtus Entella 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights