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Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Frosinone 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Venezia beat Frosinone 1-2 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.75 xG and Venezia 1.19 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Venezia outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.27 / defence 0.83 against Venezia attack 1.41 / defence 1.07, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 50% | Draw 25% | Venezia 25%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Venezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 45%, Venezia 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Venezia's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.48 PPG, Venezia 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights