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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Frosinone and Sudtirol share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone and Sudtirol finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.36 xG and Sudtirol 1.10 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sudtirol outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.11 / defence 0.97 against Sudtirol attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 39% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 26%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 39%, Sudtirol 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Sudtirol's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.22 PPG, Sudtirol 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights