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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Frosinone and Spezia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone and Spezia finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 0.91 xG and Spezia 1.47 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.88 / defence 1.25 against Spezia attack 1.00 / defence 0.81, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 21% | Draw 30% | Spezia 48%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 54%, Spezia 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Spezia's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights