Frosinone vs Sassuolo – Match Report

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Sassuolo edge out Frosinone 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sassuolo beat Frosinone 1-2 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 0.90 xG and Sassuolo 1.60 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.80 / defence 1.18 against Sassuolo attack 1.23 / defence 0.89, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 19% | Draw 29% | Sassuolo 52%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 54%, Sassuolo 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Sassuolo's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Frosinone 0.94 PPG, Sassuolo 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sassuolo win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights