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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Salernitana.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Salernitana 2-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.24 xG and Salernitana 1.00 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Salernitana landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.82 / defence 1.25 against Salernitana attack 0.76 / defence 1.22, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 40% | Draw 32% | Salernitana 28%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 55%, Salernitana 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Salernitana's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Frosinone 0.91 PPG, Salernitana 0.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights