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Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Reggiana 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Reggiana 1-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 2.09 xG and Reggiana 0.91 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Frosinone fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Reggiana landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.36 / defence 0.88 against Reggiana attack 0.99 / defence 1.18, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 64% | Draw 21% | Reggiana 15%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 47%, Reggiana 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.

Reggiana's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.47 PPG, Reggiana 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights