Frosinone 1-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Reggiana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Frosinone and Reggiana meet at Stadio Benito Stirpe in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Frosinone's overall Serie B record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Frosinone have posted 6W 3D 1L at Stadio Benito Stirpe — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Reggiana have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Frosinone. A 1.90 PPG lead over Reggiana (2.40 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Frosinone lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Frosinone winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Reggiana half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 53% versus Reggiana 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 47% | Reggiana 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 2.09 xG and Reggiana 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.363 / defence 0.879 | Reggiana attack 0.990 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.041. Frosinone carry an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 58 Frosinone games / 58 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 64% | Draw 21% | Reggiana 15%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Reggiana 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Frosinone (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 50% | Reggiana 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 64% | Draw 21% | Reggiana 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 52% | xG Frosinone 2.09 / Reggiana 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 1.363 / def 0.879 | Reggiana attack 0.990 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Reggiana xG
52%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Reggiana kick off?
Frosinone vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 January 2026 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Reggiana?
Frosinone 1 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Frosinone vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Reggiana part of?
Frosinone vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 64% chance of winning, Reggiana a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Frosinone and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Reggiana?
Record (3 meetings): Frosinone 1W | Draws 1 | Reggiana 1W.
What form are Frosinone and Reggiana in?
Frosinone (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Reggiana (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Frosinone's attack rating (1.36) and Reggiana's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (0.99x) against Frosinone's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
64%
1.55
21%
4.86
15%
6.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Frosinone xG
Total xG
3.00
0.91
Reggiana xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
6.65
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
2%
53.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Frosinone and 0.91 for Reggiana, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Reggiana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Frosinone's recent record stands at 21W 22D 15L from 58 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggiana, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 26L across 58 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Frosinone against 1.10 for Reggiana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 10W 12D 6L from 28 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reggiana's away record stands at 6W 7D 15L across 28 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Frosinone are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.14 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reggiana in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 21W 22D 15L in their last 58 games (1.47 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 16W 16D 26L in their last 58 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Reggiana away?
Frosinone's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.50 PPG; Reggiana away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Frosinone have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Reggiana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Frosinone
1
Draws
1
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Reggiana?
From 4 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 2, Reggiana have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Frosinone 1-0 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Frosinone and Reggiana?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 57%, Reggiana 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Frosinone) and 54% (Reggiana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Reggiana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Frosinone's games and 64% of Reggiana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Frosinone's matches and 54% of Reggiana's.
Do Frosinone and Reggiana tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Frosinone edge out Reggiana 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Reggiana 1-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 2.09 xG and Reggiana 0.91 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Frosinone fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Reggiana landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.36 / defence 0.88 against Reggiana attack 0.99 / defence 1.18, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 64% | Draw 21% | Reggiana 15%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 47%, Reggiana 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Reggiana's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.47 PPG, Reggiana 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.