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Frosinone and Reggiana share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 26, as Frosinone and Reggiana drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 0.97 xG and Reggiana 1.30 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.73 / defence 1.33 against Reggiana attack 0.89 / defence 1.08, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 26% | Draw 31% | Reggiana 42%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 54%, Reggiana 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Reggiana's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Frosinone 0.90 PPG, Reggiana 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights