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Frosinone and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 34, as Frosinone and Palermo drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.51 xG and Palermo 1.07 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.20 / defence 0.92 against Palermo attack 1.05 / defence 0.91, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 46% | Draw 29% | Palermo 25%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 51%, Palermo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Palermo's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.56 PPG, Palermo 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights