🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Frosinone defy the odds to beat Mantova 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Mantova 2-1 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.26 xG and Mantova 1.57 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.76 / defence 1.30 against Mantova attack 1.09 / defence 1.37, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 29% | Draw 29% | Mantova 43%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Frosinone win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 41%, Mantova 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Mantova's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Frosinone 0.89 PPG, Mantova 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights