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Dominant Frosinone run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Carrarese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Frosinone beat Carrarese 3-0 at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 1.84 xG and Carrarese 0.95 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Frosinone beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Carrarese landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 1.16 / defence 0.93 against Carrarese attack 0.93 / defence 1.14, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Frosinone 57% | Draw 26% | Carrarese 17%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 51%, Carrarese 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Frosinone's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Carrarese's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Frosinone 1.58 PPG, Carrarese 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights