Feralpisalo 2-2 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Feralpisalo face Cosenza.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Feralpisalo welcome Cosenza to Stadio Leonardo Garilli in Serie B (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 6 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Feralpisalo — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Feralpisalo's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Cosenza have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cosenza's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Feralpisalo at 1.30 PPG versus Cosenza's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Feralpisalo, 0 for Cosenza and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Nov 2023, ended Feralpisalo 1–1 Cosenza — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Feralpisalo in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 13% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 52% versus Cosenza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 55% | Cosenza 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.06 xG and Cosenza 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.956 / defence 1.240 | Cosenza attack 0.752 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.239. Cosenza's attack rating of 0.752 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.240 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cosenza's projected output up. Data: built from Feralpisalo's last 31 games and Cosenza's last 69.
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 32% | Draw 31% | Cosenza 37%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 3.11 | Draw 3.22 | Cosenza 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Feralpisalo 60% (last 10 home games) | Cosenza 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, matchday 32 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 32% | Draw 31% | Cosenza 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Feralpisalo 1.06 / Cosenza 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.956 / def 1.240 | Cosenza attack 0.752 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Cosenza xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Cosenza FAQs
What time does Feralpisalo vs Cosenza kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Cosenza?
Feralpisalo 2 - 2 Cosenza.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Cosenza part of?
Feralpisalo vs Cosenza is a Serie B fixture (matchday 32) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 32% chance of winning, Cosenza a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Feralpisalo and Cosenza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Feralpisalo vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Feralpisalo's attack rating (0.96) and Cosenza's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Feralpisalo's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Feralpisalo's last 31 games and Cosenza's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
32%
3.11
31%
3.22
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.22
1.16
Cosenza xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
10%
9.90
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feralpisalo vs Cosenza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.16 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Feralpisalo's recent record stands at 8W 6D 17L from 31 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 13L across 31 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Feralpisalo on 0.97 PPG, Cosenza on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Feralpisalo have managed 3W 3D 9L from their last 15 home games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 4W 5D 6L across their last 15 away games, a 1.13 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Feralpisalo are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.03 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
Feralpisalo (Home) vs Cosenza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feralpisalo
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Feralpisalo vs Cosenza Form FAQs
What form are Feralpisalo and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 8W 6D 17L in their last 31 games (0.97 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 8W 10D 13L in their last 31 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Cosenza away?
Cosenza's away record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 0.80 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Feralpisalo
2
Draws
0
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Feralpisalo vs Cosenza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Cosenza?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Feralpisalo have won 0, Cosenza have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Cosenza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2024: Feralpisalo 2-2 Cosenza.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feralpisalo 53%, Cosenza 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Feralpisalo) and 13% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo have failed to score in 33% of games; Cosenza in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Cosenza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feralpisalo and Cosenza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 33% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Feralpisalo and Cosenza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 13% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Cosenza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 87% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 47% of Cosenza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feralpisalo and Cosenza share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 32, as Feralpisalo and Cosenza drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 1.06 xG and Cosenza 1.16 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Feralpisalo beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cosenza outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.96 / defence 1.24 against Cosenza attack 0.75 / defence 0.87, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 32% | Draw 31% | Cosenza 37%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 55%, Cosenza 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feralpisalo 0.97 PPG, Cosenza 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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