🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Empoli and Virtus Entella share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Empoli and Virtus Entella finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.58 xG and Virtus Entella 0.73 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.98 / defence 1.19 against Virtus Entella attack 0.56 / defence 1.17, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 56% | Draw 29% | Virtus Entella 15%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 50%, Virtus Entella 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Virtus Entella's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Empoli 1.06 PPG, Virtus Entella 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights