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Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Empoli 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sudtirol beat Empoli 0-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.33 xG and Sudtirol 0.99 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Empoli fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.09 / defence 1.12 against Sudtirol attack 0.87 / defence 0.93, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 43% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 26%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 47%, Sudtirol 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Sudtirol's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Empoli 1.02 PPG, Sudtirol 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights