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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Empoli and Sampdoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 10, as Empoli and Sampdoria drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.66 xG and Sampdoria 1.11 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.01 / defence 1.13 against Sampdoria attack 0.87 / defence 1.24, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 47% | Draw 31% | Sampdoria 22%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 51%, Sampdoria 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Sampdoria's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Empoli 0.87 PPG, Sampdoria 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights