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Palermo cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Empoli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Palermo beat Empoli 1-3 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.39 xG and Palermo 0.96 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Palermo outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 1.17 / defence 0.97 against Palermo attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 14/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 45% | Draw 30% | Palermo 24%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Palermo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 50%, Palermo 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Palermo's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights