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Empoli cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Padova.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Empoli beat Padova 3-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.33 xG and Padova 1.16 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Padova attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 39% | Draw 30% | Padova 31%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights