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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie B · Regular Season - 1

Kick-off

Sat 23 Aug 2025

18:00

Venue

Stadio Carlo Castellani

Competition

Serie B

Italy

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Empoli Win

39%

Empoli

2.55

30%

Draw

3.39

31%

Padova

3.19

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.8%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

11.0%

Home win

0 – 1

9.6%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.33

Empoli xG

Total xG

2.49

1.16

Padova xG

39%
30%
31%
EmpoliDrawPadova

2.55

39%

Home win

3.39

30%

Draw

3.19

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.93

48%

BTTS No

2.07

Clean Sheet

31%

Empoli

3.20

27%

Padova

3.77

Win to Nil

12%

Empoli

8.16

8%

Padova

12.04

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.3 9.6 5.6 2.2 0.6 0.1
1 11.0 12.8 7.4 2.9 0.8 0.2
2 7.3 8.5 4.9 1.9 0.6 0.1
3 3.2 3.8 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1
4 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.327
λ Away (xG) 1.162
Total xG 2.489
League avg home goals 1.358
League avg away goals 1.189
Empoli attack strength 0.850
Empoli defence strength 1.150
Padova attack strength 0.850
Padova defence strength 1.150
Data phase PrevSeason
Games used (H/A) 0 / 0