Empoli vs Mantova – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Mantova at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Mantova encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mantova make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani to face Empoli in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 January 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Empoli have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Empoli are significantly better at Stadio Carlo Castellani than their overall form suggests.
Mantova (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Mantova are 1.00 PPG clear of Empoli in recent Serie B fixtures (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Empoli have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Mantova in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Empoli lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 1–3 with Mantova winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Mantova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 60% versus Mantova 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 48% | Mantova 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.96 xG and Mantova 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.884 / defence 1.261 | Mantova attack 1.062 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.232. Data: 48 Empoli games / 48 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 20% | Draw 28% | Mantova 52%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 5.00 | Draw 3.57 | Mantova 1.92. Mantova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mantova if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 60% | Mantova 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 20% | Draw 28% | Mantova 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Empoli 0.96 / Mantova 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.884 / def 1.261 | Mantova attack 1.062 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Mantova (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Mantova xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Mantova kick off?
Empoli vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
Where is Empoli vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Mantova part of?
Empoli vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 20% chance of winning, Mantova a 52% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Empoli and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Mantova?
Record (3 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 1 | Mantova 1W.
What form are Empoli and Mantova in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Mantova (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Empoli's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Mantova's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (1.06x) against Empoli's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
20%
4.97
28%
3.57
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.61
1.65
Mantova xG
4.97
20%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
4%
25.88
20%
5.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 12.2 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Empoli and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Empoli and 1.65 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 16D 21L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova's form line: 18W 10D 20L from 48 games, 1.33 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Empoli against 1.33 for Mantova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.25 PPG from 24 outings (6W 12D 6L).
On the road, Mantova have gone 7W 6D 11L from 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Empoli are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.25 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Mantova in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 11W 16D 21L in their last 48 games (1.02 PPG), while Mantova have gone 18W 10D 20L in their last 48 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Mantova away?
Empoli's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.25 PPG; Mantova away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Empoli
1
Draws
1
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Mantova?
From 3 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Mantova have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Mantova 3-1 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 67%, Mantova 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Empoli) and 50% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Mantova in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Empoli's games and 46% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Empoli's recent games and 50% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Mantova tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mantova in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.