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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Empoli and Mantova share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Empoli and Mantova finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.20 xG and Mantova 0.94 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mantova outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.85 / defence 1.06 against Mantova attack 0.80 / defence 1.08, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 41% | Draw 31% | Mantova 28%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 49%, Mantova 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Mantova's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Empoli 0.93 PPG, Mantova 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights