Empoli 2-2 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juve Stabia make the trip to Carlo Castellani to face Empoli in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Empoli have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli at Carlo Castellani this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Empoli are significantly better at Carlo Castellani than their overall form suggests.
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Juve Stabia have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Empoli against 1.20 for Juve Stabia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Empoli have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Juve Stabia in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Empoli, 2 for Juve Stabia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Juve Stabia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Empoli — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 60% versus Juve Stabia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 47% | Juve Stabia 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.87 xG and Juve Stabia 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.801 / defence 1.198 | Juve Stabia attack 0.881 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.279. Data: 47 Empoli games / 47 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 22% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 46%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 4.55 | Draw 3.23 | Juve Stabia 2.17. Juve Stabia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juve Stabia are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Empoli 60% | Juve Stabia 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 22% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Empoli 0.87 / Juve Stabia 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.801 / def 1.198 | Juve Stabia attack 0.881 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Juve Stabia xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Empoli vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Empoli 2 - 2 Juve Stabia.
Where is Empoli vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Juve Stabia part of?
Empoli vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 22% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Empoli and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Juve Stabia?
Record (2 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 0 | Juve Stabia 2W.
What form are Empoli and Juve Stabia in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.80) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.87 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.88x) against Empoli's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
22%
4.48
31%
3.19
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.22
1.35
Juve Stabia xG
4.48
22%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
6%
17.27
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.7 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Empoli and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Empoli and 1.35 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 11W 15D 21L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juve Stabia's form line: 15W 19D 13L from 47 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Empoli against 1.36 for Juve Stabia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.26 PPG from 23 outings (6W 11D 6L).
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 5W 9D 9L from 23 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.19 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 11W 15D 21L in their last 47 games (1.02 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 15W 19D 13L in their last 47 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Juve Stabia away?
Empoli's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.26 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Empoli
1
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Juve Stabia?
From 3 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Empoli 2-2 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 65%, Juve Stabia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Empoli) and 44% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Empoli's games and 56% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Empoli's recent games and 44% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli and Juve Stabia finished level at 2-2 at Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.87 xG and Juve Stabia 1.35 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.80 / defence 1.20 against Juve Stabia attack 0.88 / defence 0.84, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 22% | Draw 31% | Juve Stabia 46%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 47%, Juve Stabia 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.02 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.