Empoli vs Juve Stabia – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Empoli at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juve Stabia make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani to face Empoli in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Empoli have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Juve Stabia have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Empoli against 1.00 for Juve Stabia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Empoli have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Juve Stabia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Empoli, 2 for Juve Stabia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Juve Stabia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Empoli — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 58% versus Juve Stabia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 46% | Juve Stabia 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.22 xG and Juve Stabia 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.970 / defence 0.890 | Juve Stabia attack 0.964 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 41 Empoli games / 41 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 41% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 30%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Juve Stabia 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. This conflicts with form data: Empoli 60% | Juve Stabia 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 41% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Empoli 1.22 / Juve Stabia 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.970 / def 0.890 | Juve Stabia attack 0.964 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Empoli (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Juve Stabia xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Empoli vs Juve Stabia is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
Where is Empoli vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Juve Stabia part of?
Empoli vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 41% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Empoli and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Juve Stabia?
Record (2 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 0 | Juve Stabia 2W.
What form are Empoli and Juve Stabia in?
Empoli (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Juve Stabia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.97) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.96x) against Empoli's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.48
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.22
0.99
Juve Stabia xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
9%
11.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Empoli and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Empoli and 0.99 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 11W 14D 16L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juve Stabia's form line: 13W 16D 12L from 41 games, 1.34 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Empoli against 1.34 for Juve Stabia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (6W 11D 3L).
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 4W 7D 9L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Empoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.20 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
Juve Stabia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 11W 14D 16L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 13W 16D 12L in their last 41 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Juve Stabia away?
Empoli's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.45 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Empoli
0
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Juve Stabia?
From 2 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Empoli 1-2 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 70%, Juve Stabia 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Empoli) and 50% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Empoli's games and 55% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Empoli's recent games and 50% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.