Empoli vs Juve Stabia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juve Stabia make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani to face Empoli in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Empoli have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Juve Stabia have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Empoli against 1.30 for Juve Stabia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Empoli register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Juve Stabia in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Empoli, 2 for Juve Stabia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Juve Stabia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Empoli — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 60% versus Juve Stabia 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 47% | Juve Stabia 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.14 xG and Juve Stabia 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.930 / defence 1.173 | Juve Stabia attack 0.878 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.271. Data: 45 Empoli games / 44 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 31% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 39%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Juve Stabia 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juve Stabia are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juve Stabia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 70% | Juve Stabia 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 31% | Draw 30% | Juve Stabia 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Empoli 1.14 / Juve Stabia 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.930 / def 1.173 | Juve Stabia attack 0.878 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Juve Stabia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Juve Stabia xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Empoli vs Juve Stabia is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
Where is Empoli vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Juve Stabia part of?
Empoli vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 31% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Juve Stabia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Empoli and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Juve Stabia?
Record (2 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 0 | Juve Stabia 2W.
What form are Empoli and Juve Stabia in?
Empoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Empoli's attack rating (0.93) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.88x) against Empoli's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 45/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
31%
3.22
30%
3.37
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.45
1.31
Juve Stabia xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Empoli and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Empoli and 1.31 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 11W 15D 19L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juve Stabia's form line: 14W 19D 12L from 45 games, 1.36 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Empoli against 1.36 for Juve Stabia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.32 PPG from 22 outings (6W 11D 5L).
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 4W 9D 9L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.22 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Empoli have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
Juve Stabia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 11W 15D 19L in their last 45 games (1.07 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 14W 19D 12L in their last 45 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Juve Stabia away?
Empoli's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.32 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Empoli
0
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Juve Stabia?
From 2 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 11 February 2026, when Empoli 1-2 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 68%, Juve Stabia 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Empoli) and 46% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Empoli's games and 59% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Empoli's recent games and 46% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.